Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications

Wind Power Persistence Characterized by Superstatistics

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount of storage to balance the power system. While the general statistics of wind velocities have been studied extensively, persistence (waiting) time statistics of wind is far from well understood. Here, we investigate the statistics of both high- and low-wind persistence. We find heavy tails and explain them as a superposition of different wind conditions, requiring q-exponential distributions instead of exponential distributions. Persistent wind conditions are not necessarily caused by stationary atmospheric circulation patterns nor by recurring individual weather types but may emerge as a combination of multiple weather types and circulation patterns. This also leads to Fréchet instead of Gumbel extreme value statistics. Understanding wind persistence statistically and synoptically may help to ensure a reliable and economically feasible future energy system, which uses a high share of wind generation

Quantitative pressure and strain field analysis of helium precipitates in silicon

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adducts may induce mutations that contribute to carcinogenesis. We evaluated potential associations between smoking and polymorphisms in PAH metabolism [CYP1A1 Ile 462Val, CYP1B1 Ala 119Ser and Leu 432Val, microsomal epoxide hydrolase (mEH) Tyr 113His and His139Arg, CYP3A4 A(-392)G] and conjugation [glutathione S-transferase (GST) M1 null deletion, GSTP1 Ile 105Val] genes and PAH-DNA adduct levels (measured by immunohistochemistry) in tumor and nontumor prostate cells in 400 prostate cancer cases. Although no statistically significant associations were observed in the total sample, stratification by ethnicity revealed that Caucasian ever smokers compared with nonsmokers had higher adduct levels in tumor cells (mean staining intensity in absorbance units +/- SE, 0.1748 +/- 0.0052 versus 0.1507 +/- 0.0070; P = 0.006), and Caucasians carrying two mEH 139Arg compared with two 139His alleles had lower adducts in tumor (0.1320 +/- 0.0129 versus 0.1714 +/- 0.0059; P = 0.006) and nontumor (0.1856 +/- 0.0184 versus 0.2291 +/- 0.0085; P = 0.03) cells. African Americans with two CYP1B1 432Val compared with two 432Ile alleles had lower adducts in tumor cells (0.1600 +/- 0.0060 versus 0.1970 +/- 0.0153; P = 0.03). After adjusting for smoking status, carrying the putative "high-risk" genotype combination, the faster metabolism of PAH-epoxides to PAH-diol-epoxides (CYP1B1 432Val/Val and mEH 139Arg/Arg) with lower PAH-diol-epoxide conjugation (GSTP1 (105)Ile/Ile), was associated with increased adducts only in Caucasian nontumor cells (0.2363 +/- 0.0132 versus 0.1920 +/- 0.0157; P= 0.05). We present evidence, for the first time in human prostate that the association between smoking and PAH-DNA adducts differs by race and is modified by common genetic variants

Crop response to P fertilizer omission under a changing climate-Experimental and modeling results over 115 years of a long-term fertilizer experiment

Phosphorus (P) is an essential plant nutrient. However, our understanding of the complex interactions between soil P availability, environment, management and crop growth is still limited. We used unique historic and recent soil and crop data spanning more than a century combined with a process-based crop model to analyze the impact of P fertilizer omission and P fertilization on the biomass production of five crops. The long-term field experiment at Dikopshof, Germany, was established in 1904 with a 5-year crop rotation of sugar beet, winter wheat, winter rye, clover and oat/potato (potato replaced oat in 1953) on a fertile Luvisol. Averaged over the period from 1906 to 2018, the yield loss due to P omission was low for winter wheat and winter rye (7-8 %). In contrast, yield losses for sugar beet, clover and potato were relatively high (15-24 %). The yield loss from P fertilizer omission in comparison to the reference treatment (rotation mean excluding oat/potato) increased until the middle of the last century from 7% to 18 %, but subsequently decreased to 13 %. Trend and correlation analyses suggest that this decrease was related to an increase in air temperatures in especial during spring and a lower yield loss under P omission. Crop model simulations showed decreasing topsoil organic carbon concentrations after the 1930ies as manure was discontinued in 1942 but also due to increasing air temperatures. The increase in plant-available topsoil P concentrations during the last decades was one of the main factors offsetting yield losses despite P fertilizer omission. Our study suggests that climate change and, in particular, a marked increase in temperature since the middle of the last century most likely influenced soil P dynamics with a significant impact on crop production.Peer reviewe